Algebraic quantification of an active region contribution to the solar cycle

The solar dipole moment at cycle minimum is considered to be the most successful precursor for amplitude of subsequent cycle. Numerical simulations surface flux transport (SFT) model are widely used effectively predict minimum. Recently an algebraic method has been proposed quickly contribution active region (AR) axial instead SFT simulations. However, assumes a bipolar magnetic (BMR) configuration ARs. Actually ARs asymmetric in opposite polarities, or have more complex configurations. Such evolve significantly differently from that BMR approximations. We propose generalized describe AR with arbitrary configuration, and evaluate its effectiveness compared BMR-based method. employ mathematical deductions obtain compare results observed ARs, artificially created BMRs, also equivalent model, precisely predicts ARs' contributions moment. much higher computational efficiency than Although similar as method, it only accurate symmetric systematically overestimates randomly miscalculate provides quick precise quantification AR's evolution, which paves way application into physics-based prediction.